US Politics

 

November 6, 2024: The Day After the U.S. Election

With Trump elected to a second term, we can anticipate the following potential impacts:

• Stability within the U.S., with no risk of internal conflict or “civil war”

• An end to U.S. military support for Ukraine, likely concluding the Ukraine conflict

• Potential trade negotiations between Russia and the U.S.

• Deterioration in U.S.-China relations

• Continued U.S. support for Israel, with no shift in policy regarding Palestine

• Growing political and strategic distance between the U.S. and the U.K.

Had Vice President Harris won, the landscape might look significantly different:

• Destabilisation within the U.S., with risk of the election hype spilling over to escalating internal conflict or “civil war”

• Continued military support for Ukraine, potentially prolonging the crisis

• Heightened tensions with Iran, possibly escalating to a larger conflict

• Strained U.S.-China relations

• No change in the U.S. stance on Israel and Palestine

• Closer U.S.-U.K. alignment

Neither candidate is flawless. Politicians often operate from motives that do not always align with the public good. However, between these two, a case could be made for preferring a leader inclined towards economic diplomacy over one likely to deepen global tensions. When we set aside personalities and examine only policy impacts, this distinction becomes clearer.

It’s a complex reality. Voters have chosen what they perceive as the lesser of two evils—a relative improvement, even if imperfect.

On Division and Democracy

The social divide surrounding Trump is unmistakable. Some friends intensely dislike him, often focusing on his personality rather than his policies. This has, at times, created tension, prompting me to stay silent to avoid conflict or the risk of losing relationships.

Politics, particularly in the U.S., has become polarized into a “Red vs. Blue” narrative, designed to foster division. This “divide and conquer” strategy keeps society fragmented and distracts from the broader corporate agendas shaping policy behind the scenes. The perception of choice often revolves around personalities rather than substantive policy differences.

Imagine a form of governance where people vote on policies, not parties or personalities. In this model, elected officials would serve as facilitators of the public’s policy preferences, possibly even on a national minimum wage. This approach would allow for ongoing policy development and debate, rather than a disruptive reset every four years. Such a system has yet to exist, or even to be named, but it presents a compelling alternative for a truly democratic society.